Market Wrap April 2019

03/05/2019
Posted in Wealth
03/05/2019 Level One

Markets

  • Market Performance – The ASX200 hit an 11-year high of 6,386 during the month and was up 2.4% for April.
  • Sector Performance – The top performing sector for April was the Consumer Staples Sector returning 7.3% and the worst performing sector was the REITS Sector coming in at -2.6%.
  • Banks – The majority of the big 4 banks rose during the month of April, CBA 5.0%, Westpac 4.0% and ANZ 3.8% all up. The exception was NAB which was down 0.2%.
  • Global – The S&P 500 in the US recorded an all-time high closing the month at 2,946, it was up 4.0% for April. The Shanghai Composite Index fell -1.07%.

 

Property

  • House Prices – In April housing prices fell 0.5% seeing the national average decline 7.2% over the past twelve months, now worse than the GFC. Sydney prices are down 14.6% from their July 2017 peak and Melbourne prices are down 10.9% from their November 2017 peak at 30/04/19. The national median time to sell your property has largely increased from 43 to 60 days.
  • Auctions – The Easter period of April saw auctions fall to 394 properties nationally. This was significantly down from the week prior of 2,276 auctions taking place.
  • Credit – Private credit growth was the slowest in over 5 years to 3.9% for the past 12 months, moving up 0.3% over the month of March.
  • Rental Yields – Sydney recorded the lowest rental yields at 3.5% and the highest were in Darwin at 6.0% over the past 3 months. When expenses are deducted from this, the real yield is much lower.
  • Residential Approvals – Residential Building Approvals are down 12.5% on an annualised basis.

 

Economy

  • Inflation – CPI for the 3 months to 31/03/19 was zero. This brings CPI for the 12 months to 1.3% at 31/03/19.
  • Interest Rates – UBS continue to expect interest rate cuts this calendar year in July and August. Macquarie Bank also has recently made calls for interest rates to be cut.
  • Net Exports – Australia’s trade balance reached its highest level on record of 4.8bn in February.
  • Employment – The unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, driven by a 0.1% increase in the participation rate to 65.7%. Employment rose 25,700 jobs in March. This growth was supported by a strong rise of 48,300 full-time jobs and a decline of 22,600 in part-time employment.
  • Exchange Rates – The Australian Dollar was weaker against the US Dollar at $0.704, falling 0.7c.
  • Mortgage Delinquencies – ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott reveals Australian Home Loan 90+ Day Delinquencies definitely trending upwards.
  • US – US jobs growth bounced back from February, increasing by 177,000 in March (Feb was only 33,000 – revised). Unemployment remained unchanged at 3.8%.
Sources: UBS, Westpac, ABS, US BLS, CoreLogic, BIS Oxford Economics, AFR, The Australian

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