Markets
Local:
The ASX200 had a slight gain in May rising 0.92%.
Global:
The S&P 500 advanced 5% in May.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6% in May.
The NASDAQ also surged 7%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 3.5% over May. With the 12 month return sitting at 18.6%.
Gold:
The spot price for Gold continued to trend higher, finishing May at US $2,327 per ounce.
Iron Ore:
Iron Ore price increased over the month to finish May at US $117.52 /Mt.
Oil:
Brent Oil price came down slightly in May to end the month at US $81.11 /bbl.
Property
CoreLogic’s Home Value Index rose 0.8% in May, the 16th consecutive month of growth and the largest monthly gain since October last year.
The mid-sized capitals continued to lead the pace of growth, with Perth home values up 2.0% in May, Adelaide rising 1.8% and Brisbane up 1.4%. In dollar terms, it’s the equivalent of the median dwelling value rising by more than $12,000 month-to-month in each city.
The remaining capital cities recorded milder conditions, ranging from a 0.6% lift in Sydney values to a monthly decline of -0.5% in Hobart and a -0.3% fall in Darwin.
Economy
Interest Rates:
With the decision to only meet 8 times a year rather than the previous 12, the next board meeting will not occur till the 18th of June. The Interest rate is currently sitting at 4.35%.
Retail Sales:
Australian retail turnover rose 0.1% in April 2024. This followed a 0.4% fall in March 2024 and a 0.2% rise in February 2024.
Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, said: “Underlying retail spending continues to be weak with a small rise in turnover in April not enough to make up for a fall in March. Since the start of 2024, trend retail turnover has been flat as cautious consumers reduce their discretionary spending.”
Bond Yields:
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield stabilized above 4.2% after sliding to two-week lows earlier in the month as domestic economic data proved less disappointing than markets feared.
The yield on the US 10-year government bond fell slightly over May, finishing the month at 4.51%.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin price closed May 2024 at US $67,520, reflecting a 19% growth performance during the month, however recent swings in the BTC derivatives market suggest a major leg-up towards $75,000 could follow in June 2024.
Exchange Rate:
The Aussie dollar rose slightly over May against both the American dollar at $0.664 and the Euro at $0.613.
Inflation:
Australia: The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 3.6 per cent in the 12 months to April 2024. The most significant contributors to the April annual rise were Alcohol and tobacco (+6.5%), Housing (+4.9%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.8), and Transport (+4.2%).
USA: The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.4% for the 12 months ending April, compared to the previous rate of 3.5%.
EU: Eurozone inflation rose to 2.6% year on year, from 2.4% in April. Core inflation, which shows prices without energy and food costs, also accelerated to 2.9%, from 2.7% in April.
Consumer Confidence:
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index dipped 0.3% to 82.2 in May, from 82.4 in April. Renewed cost-of-living pressures and inflation concerns have more than offset what looks to have been a relatively well received Federal Budget. Consumer sentiment remains deeply pessimistic. While expectations improved a touch in May, this was overshadowed by a further deterioration in current conditions and fears that persistently high inflation may require further interest rate rises. Importantly, the sentiment level and mix, and responses to additional questions about July’s tax cuts point to continued spending restraint by consumers heading into the second half of the year.
Employment:
Australia: The headline unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in April, up 0.2 percentage points from March. The number of people counted as officially unemployed increased by 30,300 last month, while the number of employed people increased by 38,500.
USA: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.0%. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, led by health care; government; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific, and technical services.
Purchasing Managers Index:
The headline seasonally adjusted Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) posted 49.7 in May, up from 49.6 in April. This indicated a fourth successive monthly deterioration in manufacturing sector conditions, but at the softest pace in the current sequence. Results above 50 points indicate expansion, with higher results indicating a faster rate of expansion.
US Services PMI:
The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to 54.8 in May of 2024 from 51.3 in the previous month, well above market expectations of 51.3, according to preliminary figures. The result reflected the sharpest expansion in the US private services sector in one year, adding to signs of resilience of the US economy to the prolonged period of higher interest rates.
US Global Manufacturing PMI:
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) rose to 51.3 in May, after having posted in line with the 50.0 no-change mark in April. The reading signaled a modest improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector, the fourth in the past five months.
Adviser Numbers:
The net change of advisers in May is +19, with the current number of advisers sitting at 15,630.
Sources: ABS, AFR, AWE, BLS, CoreLogic, Macquarie MWM Research, RBA, TradingEconomics, UBS Wealth Data
Comments
Business Insolvencies reaching record highs
In a clear sign of economic distress, Australia is now seeing a surge in business insolvencies, with approximately 1,100 insolvencies in March alone – the highest monthly figure since 2015.
In the March quarter, around 2,600 businesses entered an insolvency process, 41% higher than the same quarter last year. The insolvency data for the nine-month period from 1 July 2023 to 31 March 2024, shows an increase in the number of Australian companies failing. During the period, 7,742 companies entered external administration, a 36.2% increase on the previous corresponding nine-month period ending 31 March 2023.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) predicts that by the end of the financial year, the number of companies entering external administration will likely exceed 10,000 – a level not seen since 2012-13, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.
One of the key factors contributing to this surge in insolvencies is the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) pursuing debts that were previously put on hold during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the ATO, collectable debt rose 89% in the four years to June 2023. This has particularly impacted small businesses, as they account for approximately 65% of the total debt owed to the ATO (around $33 billion).
But more strictly enforced debt collection is coming at a time of tough economic conditions. High interest rates and cost-of-living pressures have weakened consumer spending, particularly in more discretionary components of spending. According to ASIC, the construction and accommodation & food services sectors represent the largest proportion of company failures, making up approximately 27.7% and 15.2% respectively.
The continued lift in insolvencies since 2021 highlights the difficult conditions many businesses are facing at present.
Sources: ASIC, Deloitte Access Economics
Is AI Empowering Australian Business?
In May, Deloitte Access Economics released its Generative AI report: Australia this week. The latest research findings are based on a survey of nearly 12,000 Asia Pacific residents, including nearly 1,300 Australian students and employees.
GenAI use among Australian employees continues to grow rapidly. In the past 12 months, the report finds that GenAI use in Australian workplaces has increased from 32% to 38% of all employees – a 20% increase in users in less than one year.
Employees have also changed how they are using GenAI applications, moving from an experimentation phase to systematically using tools in their day-to-day work. In the past 12 months, 64% of GenAI users have increased the amount they engage with the technology and 20% have more than doubled their use. Employees are also utilising GenAI more frequently and for a greater number of tasks, including creating written content, generating ideas, and conducting research.
And GenAI users are experiencing large improvements in their productivity, performance and wellbeing. According to the report GenAI has:
- Increased the speed at which users can complete tasks (75% of users agreed)
- Advanced their ability to generate new ideas (70%)
- Improved the nature of their work and/or study (64%), reflecting that Gen AI allows users to automate repetitive tasks and focus on engaging projects.
However, there are still anxieties when it comes to the technology. Australian employees are now more concerned than ever about the GenAI risks, and in the last 12 months, the percentage of employees alarmed about GenAI making factual errors has increased from 73% to 87%. Other major concerns in 2024 include the misuse of sensitive information at (89%) and copyright infringement at (84%).
Australia is lagging behind other markets in the Asia-Pacific region. Australia has the second lowest share of GenAI usage of Asia Pacific locations surveyed, at 54% compared to a regional average of 67%. In fact, developing countries have a 30% higher share of GenAI users than more developed countries, reflecting that they have generally younger populations and so more “digitally native” people as a share of the percentage of their labour forces.
When it comes to disruption, GenAI is expected to impact professional and managerial roles more than any other. So developed countries, like Australia (where these roles make up 39% of the total workforce), have a significant opportunity to utilise the technology to harness the productivity impact of Gen AI.
Sources: AFR, Deloitte Access Economics
The information in this document is general advice only. Before acting on any of the general advice you should consider if it is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. Level One Financial Advisers Pty Ltd AFSL 280061.