Markets
- Market Performance – The ASX200 was up 3.7% in June moving the Index to new highs.
- Sector Performance – The top performing sector for June was the Materials Sector returning 6.4% and the worst performing sector was the Consumer Discretionary Sector coming in at -1.5%.
- Banks – The big 4 banks all rose during the month of June, CBA 5.4%, ANZ 1.2%, NAB 0.9% and Westpac 3.4% all up.
- Global – The S&P 500 rose strongly, it was up 7.0%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.8%.
Property
- House Prices – In June national housing prices fell -0.2% showing a slower rate of decline. The national average decline was -6.9% over the past twelve months. Sydney recorded its first rise since June 2017, it was up 0.1% and Melbourne was up 0.2%. Sydney and Melbourne prices are down -9.9% and -9.2% for the past year respectively.
- Auctions – The second last weekend of June saw auctions increase to 1,484 properties nationally. This was down from the week prior of 1,505 auctions taking place. The auction clearance rate rising to 60.5% showing improvement compared to this period in the prior year.
- Private Credit – Private Credit Growth has slowed to 3.6%, a 6-year low.
- Rental Yields – Sydney recorded the lowest rental yields at 3.5% and the highest were in Darwin at 6.0% over the past 3 months. When expenses are deducted from this, the real yield is much lower.
- Residential Approvals – Residential Building Approvals continued a 6-year low, down 19.6% on an annualised basis.
Economy
- Interest Rates – The cash rate was cut again on 2 July to a new historic low of 1%. UBS still expect 2 additional cuts by November this year.
- Public Sector Job Growth– The Public Sector has driven employment growth filling 8 out of 10 new jobs over the last year. This amounts to 310,000 new jobs generated by the public sector, compared to the private sector adding only 54,000. The Public Sector now takes up just under 15% of the total population up from 12.5% in 2014.
- Bond Yield – the Australian 10-year Government bond yield closed the month of June at 1.32%, falling to a new record low of 1.26% during the month.
- Car Sales – New car sales fell for the 15th consecutive month in June to 9.6% on an annual basis.
- Employment – The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%. Employment growth rose by 42,300 jobs in May, continuing a strong performance. The participation rate reaching a new all-time high of 66%.
- Exchange Rates – The Australian Dollar rose against the US Dollar at $0.702, rising 0.9c.
- US – US jobs growth increased by 75,000 in May far below expectations. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6%. The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index (MSBCI) fell by 32 points from May dragging it to a level of 13. The lowest level on record since December 2008.
Comment
Beyond Meat an American company and producer of plant-based meat substitutes, is currently valued at 54 times its annual turnover and hasn’t made a profit to date. This euphoria at a time when the markets have soared in value, and the economy is showing signs of slowing growth and heightened international risks given China and US trade negotiations. Such valuations remind us of the Dot.com days of 2001 which did not end well for investors. The Nasdaq dropped approximately 75%!